A Study of the Demand Forecasting Model for Publishing Business using Business Analysis

Abstract

Demand forecasting is the activity of predicting the future using historical data and establishing a model that can grasp trends. Demand forecasting is widely used in a variety of business areas, including production and inventory planning as well as process management. The goal of a company that publishes and sells books is to accurately predict sales volume, thereby increasing book sales, generating more revenue, and reducing losses from inventory management. Using data analysis to predict accurate publishing demand and establishing countermeasures against factors that may cause returns can reduce the amount of losses incurred due to inventory control and returns. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the sale and return of specific books and to create a model to forecast sales demand. For this purpose, we used the sales data of the books sold for 5 years (2012 ~ 2016) by A publishing company. In addition, we collected the data related to books in the Internet portal system and SNS site. We hypothesized the factors that affect the sale and return of books and collected the variables needed for hypothesis testing from web pages and SNS sites. As a result of this study, it was possible to identify the factors affecting the return and sales of a specific book, and it was possible to establish a sales order prediction model. Because the available data is limited in the study, the scope of this study was limited to forecasting the sales demand of some books. If we apply the proposed analytical procedure and method directly from the company, we can expect better prediction results. It is also expected to be applicable to various business processes of book publishing or sales companies.